How high can the U.S. debt go?
For example, the Penn-Wharton Budget Model noted in a report from October that "the U.S. debt held by the public cannot exceed about 200 percent of GDP of GDP even under today's generally favorable market conditions."
Rising debt means fewer economic opportunities for Americans. Rising debt reduces business investment and slows economic growth. It also increases expectations of higher rates of inflation and erosion of confidence in the U.S. dollar.
Over that period, the growth of interest costs and mandatory spending outpaces the growth of revenues and the economy, driving up debt. Those factors persist beyond 2034, pushing federal debt higher still, to 172 percent of GDP in 2054.
At the end of September 2023, domestic creditors held 77 percent of the outstanding debt held by the public. Foreign creditors held the remaining 23 percent.
The national debt is the total amount of money the U.S. owes its creditors, which includes “the public” (individual investors, businesses, commercial banks, pension funds, mutual funds, state and local governments, the Federal Reserve System and foreign governments) as well as other parts of the federal government, ...
Debt-to-GDP Ratio
The $34 trillion is also bigger than our own economy. The United States' gross domestic product, or GDP, which is the sum total of all the goods and services we produce in a year, is about is about $27 trillion.
Tax hikes alone are rarely enough to stimulate the economy and pay down debt. Governments often issue debt in the form of bonds to raise money. Spending cuts and tax hikes combined have helped lower the deficit. Bailouts and debt defaults have disadvantages but can help a government solve a debt problem.
Nearly half of all US foreign-owned debt comes from five countries. All values are adjusted to 2023 dollars. As of January 2023, the five countries owning the most US debt are Japan ($1.1 trillion), China ($859 billion), the United Kingdom ($668 billion), Belgium ($331 billion), and Luxembourg ($318 billion).
The U.S. national debt has soared to historic levels relative to the size of the U.S. economy. Many economists say that a rapidly mounting debt load could soon diminish U.S. economic growth, restrict government spending on important programs, and raise the likelihood of financial crises.
The largest holder of U.S. debt is the U.S government. Which agencies own the most Treasury notes, bills, and bonds? Social Security, by a long shot. The U.S. Treasury publishes this information in its monthly Treasury statement.
Why does the US owe so much money?
One of the main culprits is consistently overspending. When the federal government spends more than its budget, it creates a deficit. In the fiscal year of 2023, it spent about $381 billion more than it collected in revenues. To pay that deficit, the government borrows money.
If China (or any other nation that has a trade surplus with the U.S.) stops buying U.S. Treasuries or even starts dumping its U.S. forex reserves, its trade surplus would become a trade deficit—something which no export-oriented economy would want, as they would be worse off as a result.
China owes the United States $1.3 trillion, which is the most debt out of all the countries that are its debtors. Japan was the primary debt holder until 2008, but now comes in second place, with $1.2 trillion. Other countries with outstanding U.S. debt include Russia, India and South Korea.
1) Switzerland
Switzerland is a country that, in practically all economic and social metrics, is an example to follow. With a population of almost 9 million people, Switzerland has no natural resources of its own, no access to the sea, and virtually no public debt.
The $34 trillion gross federal debt includes debt held by the public as well as debt held by federal trust funds and other government accounts. In very basic terms, this can be thought of as debt that the government owes to others plus debt that it owes to itself.
The financial position of the United States includes assets of at least $269 trillion (1576% of GDP) and debts of $145.8 trillion (852% of GDP) to produce a net worth of at least $123.8 trillion (723% of GDP).
The United States has the world's highest national debt at $31.4 trillion. Global debt currently stands at $305 trillion, $45 trillion higher than before the COVID-19 pandemic, according to the Institute of International Finance (IIF) – a global association of the financial industry.
At the top is Japan, whose national debt has remained above 100% of its GDP for two decades, reaching 255% in 2023.
In the latest reports, Russia National Government Debt reached 281.6 USD bn in Feb 2024. The country's Nominal GDP reached 494.7 USD bn in Mar 2023.
Tax cuts, stimulus programs, increased government spending, and decreased tax revenue caused by widespread unemployment generally account for sharp rises in the national debt.
How much does China owe to the US?
The United States pays interest on approximately $850 billion in debt held by the People's Republic of China. China, however, is currently in default on its sovereign debt held by American bondholders.
Federal Borrowing
The federal government borrows money from the public by issuing securities—bills, notes, and bonds—through the Treasury. Treasury securities are attractive to investors because they are: Backed by the full faith and credit of the United States government.
The case of debts arising from World War II is somewhat less complicated. At this time only four countries, discussed below, owe the U.S. government debts of any size arising from World War II programs to aid our allies. Other countries have paid their debts in full.
In 2023, aggregate local government debt had risen to 92 trillion yuan ($12.58 trillion) and the central government of People's Republic of China ordered its banks to roll over debts in a debt-restructuring. China's gross external debt in 2023 was $2.38 trillion.
Debt as a share of GDP has risen to about the same level as in the United States, while in dollar terms China's total debt ($47.5 trillion) is still markedly below that of the United States (close to $70 trillion). As for non-financial corporate debt, China's 28 percent share is the largest in the world.
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