Can America pay off its debt?
Under current policy, the United States has about 20 years for corrective action after which no amount of future tax increases or spending cuts could avoid the government defaulting on its debt whether explicitly or implicitly (i.e., debt monetization producing significant inflation).
One of the main culprits is consistently overspending. When the federal government spends more than its budget, it creates a deficit. In the fiscal year of 2023, it spent about $381 billion more than it collected in revenues.
Interest Rates. Maintaining interest rates at low levels can help stimulate the economy, generate tax revenue, and, ultimately, reduce the national debt. Lower interest rates make it easier for individuals and businesses to borrow money for goods and services, which creates jobs and increases tax revenues.
By January of 1835, for the first and only time, all of the government's interest-bearing debt was paid off. Congress distributed the surplus to the states (many of which were heavily in debt). The Jackson administration ended with the country almost completely out of debt!
It's 22% higher than the U.S. gross national product as of June 30 (about $27 trillion). It's six times the U.S. debt figure in 2000 ($5.6 trillion). Paid back interest-free at the rate of $1 million an hour, $33 trillion would take more than 3,750 years.
The debt grew steadily into the 20th century and was roughly $22 billion after the country financed its involvement in World War I. Notable recent events triggering large spikes in the debt include the Afghanistan and Iraq Wars, the 2008 Great Recession, and the COVID-19 pandemic.
Nearly every year, the government spends more than it collects in taxes and other revenue, resulting in a deficit. (The debt ceiling, set by Congress, caps how much the U.S. can borrow to pay for its remaining bills.) The national debt, now at a historic high, is the buildup of its deficits over time.
In total, other territories hold about $7.4 trillion in U.S. debt. Japan owns the most at $1.1 trillion, followed by China, with $859 billion, and the United Kingdom at $668 billion. In isolation, this $7.4 trillion amount is a lot, said Scott Morris, a senior fellow at the Center for Global Development.
The United States pays interest on approximately $850 billion in debt held by the People's Republic of China. China, however, is currently in default on its sovereign debt held by American bondholders.
At the top is Japan, whose national debt has remained above 100% of its GDP for two decades, reaching 255% in 2023.
How much is America worth?
The financial position of the United States includes assets of at least $269 trillion (1576% of GDP) and debts of $145.8 trillion (852% of GDP) to produce a net worth of at least $123.8 trillion (723% of GDP).
According to the Bank of Russia's estimate, external debt of the Russian Federation as of March 31, 2024 totaled $304.0 billion, having decreased by $12.8 billion, or by 4.1%, since the end of 2023.
Many people believe that much of the U.S. national debt is owed to foreign countries like China and Japan, but the truth is that most of it is owed to Social Security and pension funds right here in the U.S. This means that U.S. citizens own most of the national debt.
The public owes 74 percent of the current federal debt. Intragovernmental debt accounts for 26 percent or $5.9 trillion. The public includes foreign investors and foreign governments. These two groups account for 30 percent of the debt.
Debt-to-GDP Ratio
The $34 trillion is also bigger than our own economy. The United States' gross domestic product, or GDP, which is the sum total of all the goods and services we produce in a year, is about is about $27 trillion.
Even the CBO as recently as September 2023 projected the figure to be higher—estimating an 153% debt-to-GDP ratio by 2053. The GAO puts debt at 200% of GDP by 2050, while the Penn Wharton Budget Model projects 190% of the size of the economy by the same year.
1) Switzerland
Switzerland is a country that, in practically all economic and social metrics, is an example to follow. With a population of almost 9 million people, Switzerland has no natural resources of its own, no access to the sea, and virtually no public debt.
- CANADA. 31%
- Other. 28%
- NETHERLANDS. 12%
- ITALY. 7%
- UNITED KINGDOM. 6%
- GERMANY. 6%
- PORTUGAL. 3.6%
- FRANCE. 3.2%
A nation saddled with debt will have less to invest in its own future. Rising debt means fewer economic opportunities for Americans. Rising debt reduces business investment and slows economic growth. It also increases expectations of higher rates of inflation and erosion of confidence in the U.S. dollar.
The PWBM's three policy bundles to stabilize debt and grow the economy are along three themes: (1) raising taxes on high-income households, (2) broad-based changes to Social Security and Medicare, and (3) a mixture of broad-based new tax revenue and discretionary spending cuts.
Is the US debt getting worse?
National debt is now 123% of gross domestic product
Since then, the Hamiltonian principle has been decisively abandoned, and the federal government now routinely runs large deficits, resulting in ever-increasing debt burdens. This behavior is projected to worsen in the future.
According to Experian, average total consumer household debt in 2023 is $104,215. That's up 11% from 2020, when average total consumer debt was $92,727.
Since the U.S. dollar has a variable exchange rate, however, any sale by any nation holding huge U.S. debt or dollar reserves will trigger the adjustment of the trade balance at the international level. The offloaded U.S. reserves by China will either end up with another nation or will return back to the U.S.
How much does the UK owe the US? Nothing. As previously stated the UK's war debt to the US was finally paid off in 2006, every last dollar.
As of July 2020, Japan overtook China and became the largest foreign debt collector for the U.S. The United States currently owes Japan about $1.2 trillion according to the U.S. Treasury report.
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