Election news
- Labour set for biggest majority in 100 years - YouGov poll
- Revealed: The Tory big beasts who could lose their seats
- Farage to stand at general election|Taking over as Reform leader
- Starmer 'prepared to use nuclear weapons' if needed
- Tories pledge to protect 'biological sex' as characteristic
- Be in the audience for our election leaders event
- Live reporting by Tim Baker and Brad Young
Expert analysis
- Rob Powell:Tories put Labour on the spot over biological sex
- Adam Boulton:'Starmtroopers' are purging Labour
Election essentials
- Trackers:Who's leading polls?|Is PM keeping promises?
- Follow Sky's politics podcasts:Electoral Dysfunction|Politics At Jack And Sam's
- Read more:Who is standing down?|Key seats to watch|How to register to vote|What counts as voter ID?|Check if your constituency is changing|Your essential guide to election lingo|Sky's election night plans
Which Tory big beasts could be unseated in the general election?
With YouGov predicting a rout of the Conservative Party, it is worth digging into which famous faces could be finished.
They could follow in the footsteps of Michael Portillo, who was famously unseated in 1997.
He was a Tory cabinet minister, beaten by Labour's candidate in Enfield as Tony Blair swept to power.
Below is who is at risk this time:
- Jeremy Hunt, the chancellor;
- Grant Shapps, the defence secretary;
- Penny Mordaunt, the Commons leader;
- Victoria Prentis, the attorney general;
- Alex Chalk, the justice secretary;
- David TC Davies, the Welsh secretary;
- Johnny Mercer, the veterans minister;
- Steve Baker, the Northern Ireland minister;
- Bim Afolami, a Treasury minister;
- Lee Rowley, a housing minister.
What is MRP polling?
In YouGov's own words - this major poll (see previous post) on the outcome of the election is not a prediction, but an estimate.
So what makes it different to the plethora we've had already?
Well, this one is done with the MRP method.
MRP stands for the somewhat word salad-y "Multi-level Regression and Post-stratification".
In simple terms, this is how it works:
- YouGov asks lots of people, across the country, how they intend to vote. It also asks them questions about who they are so they can paint a picture of the voter;
- The pollsters use these pictures to know which characteristics match with someone voting a certain way - this is the regression bit;
- YouGov then combines this with a second piece of information it has - a breakdown of all the constituencies and the kinds of people who live in each one;
- These portraits of how people vote - based on where they live, gender, age and many other factors - are matched with the descriptions of all the different constituencies to produce an estimate for how each seat intends to vote. This is the stratification;
- From there, YouGov provides the estimate of how the general election could turn out.
A huge number of people are asked for their opinions to build up the pictures used in MRP.
Sometimes it can be close to 20,000 people being asked.
Labour could be set for biggest majority in 100 years - YouGov poll
By Sam Coates, deputy political editor
Keir Starmer could be heading to Downing Street with a majority of 194 seats - the biggest for 100 years - according to the first polling projection by YouGov since the election was called.
The poll has Labour on 422 seats, up 221 compared to the 2019 results based on new constituency boundaries.
It also projects a Tory wipeout in large parts of the country, a Lib Dem surge, and the Scottish National Party losing over half its seats in Scotland, if the election was being held right now.
Today marks the first of three polling projections by YouGov, as part of a joint campaign with Sky News.
The projection shows an historic Labour landslide bigger than Tony Blair achieved in 1997, with the party getting the highest number of seats of any party at an election in history since Stanley Baldwin won a majority of 208 in 1924.
It would be the highest number of Labour seats on record, and a much bigger majority than anything else since the Second World War.
A 194 majority for Starmer would dwarf Blair's 1997 landslide majority of 179 and Margaret Thatcher who got 144 in 1983.
Read the full story below:
Are you bigger than the Reform Party, Sky News asks Farage
Our political correspondentGurpreet Narwan asks Nigel Farage if he thinks he is bigger than the Reform party.
She also asks whether his decision to stand reflects he is unhappy with Reform's campaign start.
He rolls his eyes before saying the Conservatives' attempts to "crush the Reform vote" with policies like national service hasn't worked.
"Given the onslaught, we think we're in a pretty good shape," he says.
He says he is "pretty bullish about this".
Mr Farage does not answer Gurpreet's first question.
Another journalist asks whether if he does not hit his target - more than 4.5 million votes - he will resign.
"If I don't get that result, I'll go down the pub and have a think about it, alright, and be very disappointed."
Farage: I haven't been dishonest with anybody
Channel 4 asks Mr Farage if he has lied by saying he was not standing and now doing so.
The new Reform leader says he did not mislead anyone, and that he had said previously he was planning to stand, but only ruled himself out when Rishi Sunak called a surprisingly early election.
He says: "I haven't been dishonest with anybody.
"I've changed my mind.
"I've not been dishonest with anybody, least of all myself."
Farage says he did not seek Trump's advice
Asked whether he sought Donald Trump's advice, Nigel Farage says "the Donald has other things to be dealing with".
"He's been rather busy - including joining TikTok," he adds.
He says Donald Trump's conviction in New York last week made no difference to his own decision to stand.
"I've now no doubt he'll win the presidential election - but America becomes ever more divided and the whole thing becomes ever more worrying."
Mr Farage is also asked to address the fact Reform is already fielding a candidate in Clacton.
"He knew for many months that this was a possibility. For many, many months, this was a possibility. Not a probability, but a possibility," he says.
'The Red Wall feels betrayed': Farage says Reform will take Labour votes too
Taking a question from journalists, Nigel Farage is asked whether he has made Keir Starmer the "happiest man in British politics" by announcing his candidacy.
Mr Farage denies Reform will only take votes from the Conservatives.
He says the same question was asked of UKIP in 2015, and the party took more votes from Labour.
"You were all wrong. All of you were wrong," he says, gesturing to the journalists in the room.
"No. Those people currently saying they'll vote Reform won't vote Conservative. They've gone. The Red Wall feels completely betrayed."
He says Reform will draw "fairly evenly" from Labour and the Conservatives.
What's your ultimate goal?
The first question to Nigel Farage comes from GB News.
They ask what Mr Farage's goal is.
In response, the new party leader says only one of his previous Westminster attempts was genuine.
The rest were as a pressure group.
He says he did not mind losing, but accuses the opposition of cheating.
Mr Farage says he cannot "turn his back" on the people who want him to stand.
"I can't turn my back on those millions of people who followed me, believed in me despite the horrendous things that were being said about me," he says.
Farage: Labour will win - but Reform will become 'voice of opposition'
Nigel Farage, who has just announced his candidacy, says Keir Starmer has won the general election.
But he says Reform UK will make sure "his percentage is a lot smaller" than current polls are suggesting.
He admits it is "another matter" whether Reform can win any seats under the UK's first past the post system.
But he says "we might just surprise everybody," adding that he is appealing to Conservative and Labour voters, and those who don't intend to vote at the moment.
"Keir Starmer, yes he'll win," he says, "but we are absolutely going to make sure" that Reform becomes "the voice of opposition".
"What I'm really calling for, what I intend to lead, is a political revolt. Yes, a revolt. A turning of our backs on the political status quo," he says.
"It doesn't work. Nothing in this country works any more. The health service doesn't work, the roads don't work, none of our public services are up to scratch. We are in decline.
"This will only be turned around with boldness."
Farage to stand at general election
After speaking for around 15 minutes, Nigel Farage confirms he is standing for the seat of Clacton in Essex.
After saying that he was asked a number of times if he will stand, Mr Farage says "I've changed my mind".
"I am going to stand in this election," he says.
"I'll be launching my candidacy at midday tomorrow in the Essex seaside town of Clacton.
"So midday tomorrow, Clacton at the end of the pier."
Mr Farage says he is coming back for "the next five years".
He adds that he wants to win more votes than UKIP did in 2015 - when they took four million.
Mr Farage says that some might expect Reform to take votes off the Conservatives.
But he is also targeting those who vote Labour, and those who are politically disaffected.
Mr Farage then reiterates his party's focus on immigration, and criticises people shouting "Allahu Akbar" after the local elections.
The other candidates for Clacton are:
- Matthew Bensilum, Liberal Democrats;
- Natasha Osben, Green Party;
- Jovan Owusu-Nepaul, Labour Party;
- Giles Watling, Conservatives.
