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Analysis: BJP still likely to win, but dreams of a supermajority are at risk
From CNN's Jerome Taylor
Good morning to those of you reading in from the United States. It’s 3.30 p.m. in India and vote counting in the world’s largest election has been underway for the last 7.5 hours.
It’s still too early to call: official results are in for only four seats in India’s 543-seat lower house. But some clear trends are emerging.
Current projections suggest Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is set to win a third term in power. But the big question is: by how much?
India’s opposition is putting up a bigger fight than initially projected and things are getting interesting. That could spell trouble for the BJP.
Modi and his right-wing Hindu nationalist party entered the election confidently declaring they were aiming for a 400-seat supermajority. That would give them an unstoppable mandate to enact potentially radical change and further enshrine their Hindu-nationalist agenda – deepening India’s move away from its secular foundations.
To do that, the BJP would need a sweeping victory, holding all the seats it currently has and making in-roads into regions it has struggled to win even after two terms of leadership.
But India’s opposition – an alliance of parties led by the Indian National Congress – is doing better than many analysts and polls envisaged.
India’s Election Commission has begun sharing preliminary results online as votes are counted across the nation that show the BJP leading in 239 seats, by far the largest party.
But the Congress is leading in 98 seats — that’s nearly double the 52 seats it won in 2019 when they received a drubbing.
So, while it’s still early, it looks like the BJP’s hopes for a supermajority are at risk and India’s opposition is far from a spent force, even if mostly likely Modi will secure a third term with a healthy majority.
It's 3:30 p.m. local time. Here's where the results stand
It's mid-afternoon in India, and election officials have been counting votes across the country since 8 a.m. local time.
272 to win: Parties are competing to secure seats in the 543-seat lower house of parliament. A party or coalition needs 272 seats to win, and the leader of that party will then become prime minister.
Incumbent Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) are aiming for an ambitious 400-seat supermajority.
And the BJP is comfortably in the lead so far, according to preliminary results from the Election Commission of India. But the supermajority could be at risk, with the opposition Indian National Congress performingbetter than some analysts expected.
As of 3:30 p.m. local time, the BJP is leading in 239 constituencies and has won in three:
- Surat, in Gujarat state
- Chitradurga, in Karnataka state
- Jaipur, in Rajasthan state
The Congress party is leading in 98 constituencies and has won one seat:
- Jalandhar, in Punjab state
Ruling party's supporters call for more mosque demolitions after controversial Ram Mandir temple inauguration
From CNN's Esha Mitra and Aishwarya S Iyer in New Delhi, India
One of India's biggest recent religious controversies became a rallying cry for the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) on Tuesday, with supporters at the Delhi headquarters calling for the demolition of mosques.
Men inside the building raised signs and slogans popular among the BJP's far-right Hindu nationalist base, reading:
“Ayodhya was only the teaser, Kashi and Mathura are left.”
The slogan refers to thecontroversial Ram Mandir in northern India’s Ayodhya, a Hindu temple built on the foundations of a centuries-old mosque that was torn down by hardline Hindu crowds in the early 1990s — spurred on by the BJP and other right-wing groups.
The incident triggered widespread communal violence, some of the worst seen in India in decades.
The rest of the slogan refers to mosques in the holy city Varanasi, also known by its ancient name Kashi, and in the city of Mathura in Uttar Pradesh state.
“This is a historic and religious issue for us... I raised those slogans as we all feel terribly bad when we see the mosques where our (Hindu) temple once stood," said Chetan Gupta, a 31-year-old businessman and BJP supporter at the party headquarters.
"How we took Ayodhya, we will take Kashi and Mathura back too.”
Seismic shift: In January, Prime Minister Narendra Modi inaugurated the temple as millions tuned in acrossIndiato watch the ceremony. The opening was considered to bethe crowning moment for Modi’sHindu nationalist ambitions andmarked a seismic shiftaway from modern India’s secular founding principles.
The opposition's perspective: Meanwhile, at the Indian National Congress headquarters, the mood remains upbeat as the preliminary results roll in, suggesting a better showing than expected.
Some supporters are playing the drums, waving flags, and chanting: "Unite India."
Some Muslim supporters are offering their daily prayers, with voters having expressed concern to CNN that a BJP victory would further marginalize the country's minority Muslim population.
How strong is the opposition contending in India’s election?
From CNN’s Helen Regan and Rhea Mogul
The main challenger to Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is the Indian National Congress, which has governed the country for much of the 77 years since independence but now finds itself in the doldrums.
In an effort to prevent another Modi win, the Congress formed an alliance with other opposition leaders, including major regional parties. The Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance, or INDIA, launched its campaign late last month on a platform of “saving democracy.”
The INDIA bloc had earlier been beset by infighting. Analysts say it is struggling to match the kind of star quality and appeal projected by Modi.
The opposition is also under pressure from what it says is a campaign by the BJP to weaken Modi’s opponents.
Several prominent members of the opposition, including Delhi Chief Minister Kejriwal, have been arrested or investigated by state agencies in moves decried as political by their parties. The Congress had its bank accounts frozen by federal tax authorities and said it was asked to pay a further $218 million in taxes.
Kejriwal was released on temporary bail last month and the BJP has denied political interference.
Another victory for Modi would cement his place as one of India’s most important and longest-serving leaders and condemn Congress to another five years in the wilderness of opposition.
Rising Hindu nationalism leaves Muslims fearful in India's holy city
From CNN’s Rhea Mogul, Aishwarya S. Iyer, Kunal Sehgal and Will Ripley
Varanasi, an ancient city of temples and gods, is India’s spiritual capital. It’s also Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s political stronghold, and where tensions between the two faiths are escalating.
When Modi chose this holy city as his constituency a decade ago, it was the perfect setting for him to meld his party’s political and religious ambitions. Having risen to power on a promise of development and anti-corruption, his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) now stands accused of turning India — a nation constitutionally bound to secularism — into a Hindu rashtra, or homeland.
Vying for a rare third term in power, he is defending his seat in the traffic-clogged, diverse city of some 1.7 million people.Yet, 10 years after his ascension, many of Varanasi’s Muslims feel neglected, even betrayed.
Local Muslim leader Syed Mohammad Yaseen, 78, feels the government is failing to protect his community, which he says is feeling increasingly vulnerable and fearful of hate crimes in today’s India.
“The worst will happen (if Modi gets reelected),” he said. “We are tolerating these things, maybe one day there can be change. But we are hopeless.”
Modi’s BJP has its roots in the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh, a right-wing paramilitary organization that advocates Hindu supremacy within India — though the party has repeatedly said it does not discriminate against minorities.
In Modi’s decade in power, religious polarization has increased.
Hindu nationalists have been appointed to top positions in key government institutions, giving them the power to make sweeping changes to legislation that rights groups say unfairly target Muslims. Textbooks have been rewritten to downplay the history of India’s ancient Islamic rulers, cities and streets with Mughal-era names renamed and Muslim properties have been demolished.
In 2019, Modi’s administration passed a controversial citizenship law that excludes Muslim migrants, giving rise to deadly riots.
Multiple human rights organizations, including Human Rights Watch, Amnesty International and the International Federation for Human Rights have warned of continued discrimination against religious minorities, particularly Muslims, over the past decade, and have repeatedly called on authorities to end it.
Analysis: China is watching India's election very closely
From CNN’s Nectar Gan in Hong Kong
The world’s largest authoritarian country will be watching closely as the neighboring world’s largest democracy announces its election results.
Months after Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi won his first general election in 2014, he hosted Chinese leader Xi Jinping for a state visit with a warm welcome and won $20 billion in investment and trade deals from China.
But relations between the neighbors have since plummeted.
The two nuclear-armed powers have seen deadly clashes over a long-running dispute over their contested 2,100-mile border and an intensifying showdown in areas from the economy to geopolitics.
In recent years, India has banned hundreds of Chinese apps on national security grounds and forged closer ties to Washington due to concerns about Beijing’s growing assertiveness.
The Asian giants are also vying for leadership in the Global South and courting developing nations for support in a new international order.
Economic competition ratcheting up: Last year, India overtook China as the world’s most populous country. And Modi has vowed to make India the third-largest global economy, up from its current fifth place. Soon, he said, India will become the “growth engine” for the world — a title long held by China as it transformed from an impoverished nation to the world’s second-largest economy.
Beijing will also be closely watching Modi’s economic plans to turn India into a go-to for investors seeking an alternative to China, which is grappling with a myriad of economic challenges, including accelerated capital flight.
India's next prime minister must create more factories
From CNN's Diksha Madhok
One of the biggest challenges for India's new government will be to grow the manufacturing sector.
Factories constitute less than 15% of India’s GDP, according to theWorld Bank, but their growth is essential if India wants to become a global economic powerhouse.
The Modi administration has made some progress in its last term, as it tries to capitalize on the massive rethink underway among companies on supply chains.
International firms want to diversify their operations away from China, where they faced obstacles during the pandemic and are threatened by rising tension between Beijing and Washington.
Asia’s third-largest economy has launched a production-linked incentive program worth$26 billionto attract companies to set up manufacturing in 14 sectors, ranging from electronics and automobiles to pharmaceuticals and medical devices.
As a result, some of the world’s biggest firms, including Apple (AAPL) supplier Foxconn, are expanding their operations significantly in India.
Until two years ago, Apple would typically start assembling models in the country onlyseven to eight monthsafter launch. That changed inSeptember 2022, when Apple started making new iPhone 14 devices in India weeks after they went on sale.
Analysts have called the strategy change a big win for Prime Minister Narendra Modi, as growing manufacturing ties with a US giant like Apple will attract other global players in the electronics manufacturing ecosystem to India.
According to market research firm Canalys, up to 23% of iPhones will be made in India by the end of 2025, up from 6% in 2022.
BJP supporters feel less hopeful about winning a supermajority – but still believe in a Modi victory
From CNN's Aishwarya S Iyer in New Delhi
At the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) headquarters in New Delhi, supporters say the mood is less celebratory than in previous years.
Despite the BJP's overall lead, the opposition is doing better than expected.
"No, we will not make it to the 400 (seat) mark, but BJP will get the majority on its own and form the government,” said BJP supporter Alka Goel — referring to the parliamentary supermajority that the party had hoped to achieve.
“But (Prime Minister Narendra Modi) will come back. Then we will work harder next time," she said.
Pooja Shambhani, another supporter at the headquarters, agreed that the mood was less hopeful this year — but emphasized that India needed Modi for the country's development.
"It is the people’s fault. They should know better who they want them to lead. Do they want a donkey’s government or a lion’s government?” she said.
Vidya Iyer, 48, said she had traveled from the southern state of Kerala to Delhi just to watch the “spectacle of Modi winning again" — and expressed her hope for another decade of Modi rule.
"You see he will be here not only for another five years. A lot is destined to happen with India," she said.
Congress supporters say "India will be a broken country" if BJP is re-elected
From CNN's Esha Mitra in New Delhi
Chants of "Unite India" ring out at the opposition Congress party's headquarters, with women supporters voicing support for party leader Rahul Gandhi and criticisms for incumbent Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
“India will be a broken country if (the Bharatiya Janata Party) is re-elected,” said Sunita Gautam, a party worker.
“It’s a horrible plight for women, we won’t be safe. It’s horrible for Muslims. It’s horrible for Dalits. Who is it good for?” she said.
She said Modi "promised employment for youth, but look at the number of people unemployed. He does not respect women so he should take his bag and leave the government."
The biggest election issues: In the six-week polling period, voters raised concerns about
- safety for women, who face high rates of sexual violence and assault;
- rising Islamophobia and Hindu nationalism, driven by the right-wing BJP;
- the outlawed caste hierarchy system that still lingers in parts of the country;
- and high unemployment rates, especially among the ballooning youth population.
Kavita Singh, another Congress worker at the headquarters, expressed confidence in Gandhi.
"He’s winning, we will form the government," she said. “He walked all across the country, when do you remember anyone else doing that, reaching out to people like that?”
Gandhi completed a 6,713-kilometer (4,200-mile) walk across the country in March, starting in the violence-hit northeastern state of Manipur, to raise issues of poverty, unemployment, diversity and democracy with voters.
